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Episode 8 – Why is everything getting worse?
Show Notes (with AI assistance)
Hello everyone, and welcome back to Data with Duke — the podcast where we interrogate data until it admits what it really knows, and occasionally remind ourselves that the human brain is a deeply unreliable narrator.
Today’s episode is about a feeling I suspect many of us have had recently. Possibly this morning. Possibly five minutes ago while doom-scrolling. Possibly every time you glance at the news.
That feeling is this quiet, persistent belief that everything is getting worse.
Crime is up. The economy is broken. People are angrier. Work is harder. The world is on fire — sometimes literally. And, of course, the people in charge haven’t got a clue.
What’s interesting is that people feel this way across ages, professions, and political views. But when you stop looking at the vibes, the headlines, and certainly not X, something odd happens.
When you look at the long-term data, the story becomes… complicated.
So today we’re asking three questions:
- Is everything really getting worse?
- If not, why does it feel like it is?
- And what does the data say about how perception, media, and measurement quietly mess with our brains?
Let’s dig in.
The feeling isn’t new — at all
Survey data across multiple countries shows that people consistently believe:
- Crime is rising
- Trust in government is collapsing
- Younger generations are worse off
- Society is in decline
Most people nod along to that list without hesitation.
But here’s the thing: this isn’t new.
You can go back decades, centuries — even millennia — and find people making exactly the same complaints. Plato complained about lazy youth. Victorian newspapers warned of moral collapse. Every generation believes it is living through the worst version of history.
Feelings are powerful. But feelings are not evidence.
So… let’s talk data.
Crime: perception vs reality
Crime is one of the clearest examples of where perception and reality part company.
According to the Office for National Statistics, violent crime in the UK peaked in the mid-1990s. Overall crime then declined for roughly two decades. While there have been recent increases in specific categories, crime levels remain well below their historical highs.
And yet, surveys show that most people believe crime is rising sharply — even during periods when it was demonstrably falling.
Why?
Because our brains don’t count incidents. They count exposure.
In the past, you might hear about a crime once — on the evening news. Today, a single incident can appear as CCTV footage, social media clips, reaction videos, podcasts, think-pieces, and endless comment threads.
One crime can be experienced thousands of times.
Crime isn’t necessarily more frequent. It’s more visible.
The economy: better off, still struggling
Economics is messy, nuanced, and often deeply unsatisfying.
Long-term data shows:
- Extreme global poverty has fallen sharply since 1990 (World Bank)
- Life expectancy has increased dramatically over the last century
- Access to education has improved worldwide
Billions of people today live materially better lives than their grandparents.
And yet — many people still feel worse off.
That’s because economic wellbeing is relative, not absolute. We don’t compare ourselves to 1950. We compare ourselves to our parents at the same age, our peers, or influencers with suspiciously pristine kitchens.
Both things can be true at once:
- Long-term trends can improve
- Day-to-day experience can still feel painful
Nuance rarely survives headlines.
Your brain is (respectfully) part of the problem
A lot of the “everything is worse” feeling doesn’t come from data — it comes from how humans process information.
Negativity bias
We evolved to prioritise threats. Bad news sticks. Good news evaporates. Losses feel worse than gains feel good.
Risk distortion
Our brains inflate dramatic risks and struggle to process probability. We’re excellent at imagining catastrophe, terrible at appreciating incremental improvement.
Your brain is still running savannah survival software in a modern world.
Memory, media, and mental shortcuts
This is where things really go sideways.
Availability heuristic
If you can recall something easily, your brain assumes it’s common. And modern media ensures negative events are extremely easy to recall.
Continuous exposure
News is no longer episodic — it’s constant. There is no recovery time. No silence.
Algorithmic amplification
Social platforms don’t show you what’s representative. They show you what keeps you scrolling. Calm, improving trends don’t compete well with outrage.
The result? Your perception drifts steadily away from reality — without you noticing.
So… is everything getting worse?
No. But neither is everything getting better.
The data shows improvement across many long-term indicators, alongside real short-term pain, inequality, and disruption. The danger isn’t that things are perfect — it’s that our perception becomes so distorted we lose the ability to judge progress at all.
And when that happens, cynicism feels rational.
Final thoughts
Data doesn’t tell comforting stories. But it does tell grounded ones.
The world is complex. Progress is uneven. Decline and improvement can coexist. And your brain is doing its best — even if it’s not always helping.
So next time everything feels worse, pause and ask:
- Is this a trend?
- Or is this exposure?
- Or is this just my brain being very good at remembering bad things?
Because the data isn’t saying “everything is fine”. But it also isn’t saying “everything is doomed”.
And that distinction matters.
This is Duke, signing off.
Offline References:
Negativity Bias
Baumeister et al. (2001). Bad Is Stronger Than Good Review of General Psychology
Availability Heuristic
Tversky & Kahneman (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
Media & Risk Perception
Slovic, P. (1987). Perception of Risk Science
Measurement Effects
Pinker, S. (2018). Enlightenment Now — data on long-term trends (with criticism noted)